Bitcoin Price Analysis: Bitcoin’s Parabolic Envelope Could Push to $8000s

By Rjain November 3, 2017 18:34

Bitcoin Price Analysis: Bitcoin’s Parabolic Envelope Could Push to $8000s

Bitcoin has had a quite a year thus far, to say the least. A 10x return since the beginning of the year has put bitcoin on a parabolic growth path that is testing the limits of this 2-year long bull market:

Figure 1: BTC-USD, 3-Day Candles, Parabolic Growth Envelope

The gains have been incredible for those trading bitcoin for the last couple years, and it appears that this parabolic envelope is coming to a close. In order for this bull market to remain viable, it will need to keep up on a very aggressive, parabolic growth path that has the immediate upper resistance at between $8,000 – $9,000. Similarly, the lower support is around $5,800.

A break of either the support or resistance will put bitcoin in a very precarious position. If bitcoin breaks the upper, parabolic resistance trend and manages to find support on the trendline, this could signal an entirely new bull market. However, if bitcoin breaks the lower support, this would send a very, very bearish signal to traders, indicating a breakdown of the 2-year long bull market.

Given the trend we have seen over the last two years, it would not be at all surprising to see a test of the $8,000s before any sort of market correction (micro or macro) takes place. We are on a very aggressive growth path and, on a macro-scale, one that has has shown a consistent trend of testing the upper curve prior to correction.

This is a very strong bull market and it it should not be underestimated. However, in an effort to remain objective, it’s important to present the not-so-obvious argument and state the consequences of a disruption of this macro bull market.

Figure 2: BTC-USD, 1-Day candles, Retests of Previous All-time Highs

Throughout the life of this parabolic run, bitcoin has shown a penchant for retests during market pullbacks. We can see in the image above that every time the market peaks the upper resistance curve, it has pulled back to retest the previous all-time high before the resumption of uptrend. Part of the consequences of this parabolic growth is we are at a point where the growth is so aggressive that a retest of the previous all-time high would throw the market trend well outside the parabolic envelope. And, as stated above, that would send a very strong macro bearish signal to traders and investors as this marks a breakdown of the 2-year long trend.

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By Rjain November 3, 2017 18:34
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